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Your current location:News Center >> Company news2011, China's lubricants market development analysisAuthor:admin Time:2011/12/16 15:40:27
Three quarters, the domestic inflation pressure increases, the automobile industry and manufacturing and other major lubricating oil industry develop slowly, lubricating oil consumption is dropping, off-season feature is obvious. July is China's traditional lubricating oil consumption off-season,2012 July evident off-season characteristics are especially obvious, automobile oil and industrial oil are in recession: on the one hand, July car sales volume is declining, which oil industry situation becomes bad, and its sales ranklist is justbetter in these two months, and commercial vehicle sales situation is worst; On the other hand, July manufacturing PMI is lowest in every year. In August Car sales grow on a month-on month basis, PMI index picks up, domestic oil market began to boom. In September, in the northern region of china seasonal begin to change oil for new ones, car sales is walking into the busy season, lubricating oil consumption is continuing to recover.
Three quarters, our car sales qualities are about 4.25 million vehicles in China , a 2.7% decline in the second quarter. Motorcycle business grow rapidly in exports, production and marketing have restorative growth, three quarters sales qualities are about 6.74 million vehicles, up by 9.8%, and the growth month-on-month fell by 3.6%, but dropping situation is obviously narrow than last year. Although Automobile, motorcycle industry still keep growing, but growth fell significantly, and growing power is mainly from export market, the domestic vehicle quantities growth is slowing, lubricant sales of vehicle-use continue to grow slowly because of low vehicle quantities growth. Three quarters of China's manufacturing industry is also traditional slack, PMI in July to years after situation presents lowest point to boom slowly, but quarter average sales are still lowest, industrial lubricants demands are all in bad situation. We estimate 2011 apparent consumption of lubricating oil is 1.53 million tons in three quarters, 2.0% year-on-year drop, month-on month fell 15.5%. The first three quarters of 2011, the cumulative oil are 4.95 million tons, increasing 2.7% by year-on-year.
Three quarters, the domestic lubricant base oil supply amount is 1.4 million tons, month-on month growth dropped 7.5%, year-on-year growth increased 2.6%. Domestic base oil supply amount are 1.04 million tons, month-on month growth increased by 26.8%, year-on-year growth increased 8.0%.Zhonghai oil Huizhou refinery increase new equipment 2011.,which leads increasing amount. Import base oil amount continue to fall in third quarter, third quarter is expected to net imports 394000 tons, is down 33.7% than second quarter, down 6.2% from the same period last year. September 1st, China's total net imports base oil are 1.594 million tons, 1.6% year-on-year drop. The reasons of base oil imports have three points: one is the domestic oil demand weak;two is domestic base oil supply increases, three is imported base oil price is higher than domestic market price. In the number of domestic oil amount reduce our country’s external dependence foe basic oil. Third quarter, base oil import dependence in 28%, and a 8% decline in the second quarter.
Three quarters of the international oil prices are always falling on channel operation, WTI average price for 91 dollars a barrel, is down 11.7% in the second quarter; September WTI average price for 87 dollars a barrel, which is down 10.3% in June. Affected by this, the asia-pacific market is last fall present situation for base oil prices. On the one hand, global economic development has uncertainty enhancement, European and American economic situation tend to worse, lubricating oil demand is fatigue; On the other hand, international crude oil prices are lower and lower, the base oil price is facing downside. Singapore market 150 SN base oil keep us $1400 / mt, and flat with second quarter, but in September average fell in 4% than June.
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